Market Times

After Long time Thought to share My view on market . As I said earlier that just sending Report Everyday does not Surve the purpose as its easily available every where . So I have decided to write my Favourite people whenever there is some confusion arise. Last time if you remember , when market was falling and Nifty reached to 9950 Level . Every 2nd analyst was talking about 9700 and more down side. I have clearly written that - Dont see any further fall and market will reverse from this level . Rest what ever has happened, you all know . I have sated my Nifty target of 12000 till 2019 March long back and still I will not change that . Before , I give you a brief idea and my view on next market trend, lets discuss what actually has happened in last 3 months, which are very important and effected market . 

Trump - This is a game changer name in world economy now . Unpredictable person and his Tweets now rewarding volatility to market. In my last article I have written , Dont see any war between North Korea and USA . On 12th The most awaited meeting going to take place in Singapore. I am not so optimistic on the out come as , still I dont believe that NK has changed its stand overnight without any cruel intention. That will get revealed soon and any peace and negotiation will take time and will be an on going process. After all rarely world leaders wants to see the world peaceful. 

Crude - The oil is on boil . I always told that , dont see oil trading above $70 but it reached to $86 and now resting near $77. There is no reason available which will take crude so higher other than Saudi intention to list its biggest well Giant at premium price . High crude is dangerous for India as its effect the CA so fiscal math. India was enjoying low crude price since 2014 which now gone reverse. De Regulation of oil price has empowered oil companies to raise price frequently , and I think high oil price effect how much every one understand. But I still see crude is coming down bellow $70 soon. 

SEBI- Now a days every regulators are coming very harsh as they empowered lie never before . Sending tough instruction to MF to restructure its MF scheme and make those more transparent . Recent ASM guideline on over 100 stocks ( Means there will be 100% margin requirement to buy the stocks and script movement restricted with Bi monthly review) specially Midcaps triggered huge sell off in Midcaps and Small caps stocks. Many stocks lost over 40% in few days irrespective of their good financial health . Midcaps and Small caps built market structure , and if they become weak, Market lose stability. Large caps done well but that does not increase confidence.

Election - Recent state election of Karnataka has given an opportunity to opposition that BJP is not un deferrable and a strong alliance can do the tricks. Defeat in Karnataka also given investors a shocker as people started believing that Modi Magic not working. Its indicating also there may be a chance of weak majority or a defeat of BJP Govt in 2019 Election. There is no doubt that PM is having a uphill task to complete specially on Employment in last few months . Scope is limited as GOVT cannot don't have much Room to spend as really they don't have much money left. So now few more state election like MP, Rajasthan will be on radar which will set the final tune of 2019 Election. I will not be surprised to see BJP getting less Numbers there or even they are getting defeated. There is no doubt that BJP has done many reforms and tried to make corruption out from system but common man life has not changed and they waited patiently , though its Farmers or Poor. Young Indian who were the main strength of PM and Largest vote bank, has not got any reward against their sacrifice . So it will be very tough for Govt to make people understand actually how they benefited the common man . Opposition exactly were waiting for this and now they got the way also 

Well leaving politics aside. Let me tell you that - India does not need any specific political party to grow . We are back as the fastest GROWING country by clocking 7.7% in Q4 and 6.7% YOY. Remember , our country has gone through two most toughest change of Demo and GST . Getting back the same Growth so fast indicates the inner strength. Strong demand and consumption will be the key and this country can easily grow at average 9% in next 10 to 15 years. Only worry is still PVT Capex cycle has not started and dont think that this will start when Election is so near.

In past few days Nifty has seen top most volatility . From recent high of 10929 it has come down to 10400 level and than closed near 10700 yesterday . What next ? . As I said my target of Nifty trading at 1200 till march 2019. Why I am confident is because , our Q4 numbers are not so drastic . Growth is back on track . CRUDE also will see cooling off . RBI has raised interest rates with a neutral stand and dont see they are hiking rates again in next 6 Months. Midcaps and small cap has seen a very meaning full correction and ready for a reversal. Though RBI has hiked the rate but dont see Indians are exiting MF route so early To select Fixed income isntruments. when I speak to investors , they are very calm and understood the MF CONCEPT a bit. Inflow will come back again , recent SIP in flow data is encouraging . 1st time I am seeing Indians are moving from savings to investment culture . Also they moved from spend and save to Invest and spend culture. After Demo , people has suddenly identified the risk of over spending and moved to investment to create wealth. This has to stay here at least for another 10 to 15years time. But as I always said stock selection will be challenge and that will be the key to make money . Future Multi Baggers are trading so cheap, Just dont miss the opportunity . 

I feel nifty Nifty up words journey here to stay and even it can see 12000 soon if does not break 10350 . Yes there might be some volatility and small correction but dont see a large sell off like what we seen recently . So you can remain long in market with a SL placed at 10350 and will inform you the next step once its reaches to 12000. Breaking 10350 will change the equation , so as of now remain long . But as said have quality stocks and Recently we have added very god Research analyst for you whose advice is available on our Frontizza Mobile apps . If you still not aware pls speak to any of our people who will guide you on this .

So stay invested - and Enjoy market rally .

Fantastic Year of Equity Market just got over. 2017 will be Remembered for Long time for its awesome return . Indian Stock Market has appreciated almost 30% YOY. Most wealth creation indicator Small cap and Mid Cap index has gained by 60% and 48% Respectively. This is also one of the Year where in All month Indices closed In GREEN. Now the question is what is waiting on 2018. Before we come to conclusion Let us look back and find the reason of such wonderful Rally.

We had no confusion about this Bull run and we predicted 10000Nifty long back when nifty was at 8000 and sated our Nifty Target of 10000 at Year End. Many one laughed at us but we were very much sure about the Nifty Run. Needless to say that Today Nifty trading above 10500. After Demonetisation when the Economy got a shocker , Many of us got frightened, saddened and having the biggest fear. Bull Market always starts on this very situation when No one believed the potential and opportunity. What may be the cause or Intention of DEMO , but entire Economy got silent Booster which no one noticed . Money power from unorganised started getting more organised. The evidence is well documented . 2017 FII inflow is just INR 51000Crore, where our own money got invested more than INR 1.16lakh Crore. For the first time, Indian Equity market got decoupled from FII investment and Domestic Investors kept pumping the most awaited Liquidity which fueld the market even when we Lost pace of Growth. We must thank NAMO for keeping market alive by cutting interest in small savings and forced people to pump money in Equity. We written way back that Equity will be the best asset class and that will continue even in coming days. Investing in Equity does not only makes market healthy but other way it boost the Industry sentiment as a whole. We seen huge fresh money injected in the form of IPO and 99% listing done at mouth watering price. This uphold the confidence among investors and every one started following in mass. People who spent most of the time indicating this rally as bubble , now forced to come back and seen taking part at the peak. 

2017 has seen how Indians has moved from savings to investing. Number of SIP has grown up significantly along with MF investment is mind-blowing. Mass adopting investment through indirect equity does not indicate the Bubble but a disciplined approach towards investment which We Indian just learnt very fast and that is after DEMO. I agree that most of the investment had come unknowingly about the consequences but nothing to worry when the approach is right and more disciplined . So I would say that , 2017 rally is done based more on Liquidity rather than Fundamental , Now once the Fundamental starts improving, what will the pace!! THINK!

Other than DEMO , we seen another Biggest Reform - GST . The positive effect has not come yet , No doubt the price of commodities will fall very soon and will enhance the purchasing power. Digital Transaction will add more transparency which will be an added flavour. Could we have better Booster than this when Nifty at 8000 and wants to grow higher?. Certainly not. India is one of the largest country with high population. Don't expect to fall in line over night even in few years, But even 50% effect will create miracle. As a investor , we expect every day price will move up but don't have patience and tolerance to see the vast changes, its human nature cannot blame. I aways said that - we are blessed by our huge population and Young age , we don't need any Dynamic Bookish reform to correct our Economy , even one simple right approach and direction can give awesome Growth and make us the leader. So be rest assured that, may be we have seen 10000 Nifty in our life time ( just one correction bringing Nifty bellow 10000 for few days does not put conclusion) . So 2018 will be more furious, stronger and will be remembered for long time in Indian Equity market . It will erase all past Bull image from mind and create a New one which will last for long . Why I am so confident let me Explain.

1. NAMO will go for General election on 2019. Last 3 years we have seen Reforms and Huge GOVT Spending. I will not say those as reforms but correction of our corrupt soul. How many times we seen corporates are keen to settle the Debt on fear to lose the crown! RCOM is one of the biggest example . Off-course we could have seen another making of King Fisher easily. Now Looks at JP Group how they keen to resolve the Debt . Whose money they have enjoyed till? Where was the accountability? What made them to change the stance on repayment over night? Food for thought. Bankruptcy Bill is the biggest contributor of this change where it forced corrupt culture to change and hold accountability. This would have not happened if there is no fear to lose the crown. End of the day no Business man will like to lose their chair and become Employee. Will we say this a reforms? No ,but its a change of corrupt soul. This will force them to channelise each and every penny borrowed from banks on right reason. NPA which we are talking about are the legacy which Banks are carrying since long. I could remember and seen many corrupt businesses who borrowed money only not to pay. Today the credit system becoming more robust , you don't have to stand in long “Q” but just one PAN Number will place your entire credit history infornt to put alarm. This is the power of Digitalisation where transparency comes first than Rest. I sure you all have realised how tough to get a Loan from PSU banks these days, where PSU Banks were the largest booster of financing since many decades. Many of us questions - why TAX Payers money misused , Now this is the answer of better governance and accountability. Its a joke when Business blame Low Growth and policy for their fall ? Do they share incentive for their rise?. So this will make Banks more strong and to avoid further big NPA , if Banks become strong , nothing much required to Give Economy a good Boost. 

2.The biggest challenge of NAMO now to generate Employment. PVT sector are sitting ideal , taking benefit of digitalisation in wrong way to overflow their wallet. They have forgotten that the hobbit which they are inculcating is dangerous, they must acknowledge some short of responsibility to built the nation. Cutting man power and reach in the name of digitalisation is some thing which lie digging own grave which will reflect on them very soon for sure. GOVT has limited scope to increase Employment. I am told that yesterday Railway has agreed to fill almost 50% of vacancies in next 12 Months which will add another 50 to 60000 but that is few. PVT Sector shd come forward and start contributing. Govt already decided to Borrow almost INR 50000Crore extra, Prima-facie this will effect the fiscal deficit target but I am happy that GOVT has just not keen to retain the chair but has understood the concern. This will see more investment in those sectors which can create Employment. Don't worry this may take fiscal deficit Number from 3.2 ( Targeted) to 3.5% but don't think Sky will fall . MARKET more will wait to see how The Number is targeted in Next Fiscal. So just don't concentrate or gets excited on some Numbers which few can understand and predict but the actual medium term effect on which Market moves.

Now My Target on Nifty is 17000 . I know again its a Herculean task , But as said very few had 10000 on mind when market did fall after DEMO . My bet again on Liquidity. Just to give a Number, Indian MF Investment is just 12-14% of GDP where as any developed nation has above 90% MF penetration of GDP. If this numbers goes to even 30% , just have a figure of Index n mind. Another assumption is - in Next 5 years India has the potential to become $5Trillion Economy. So the level which I am talking about is just peanuts. Even we may cross the target sated before the time who knows. More over FII selling we are seeing because of Year and and the TAX REFORMS done by US Govt, now this is ridiculous to see all Dollars coming back to US soon only to earn few bucks!! Days are not far when Emerging Markets will start seeing fresh money coming in and India will be one of the best destination. Is there any country where Money can bring above 20% return ? . Indian is fresh , More revamped, stronger and ready to grow at the never seen pace. SO, have trust on our own self and keep investing . Discourage and avoid those who spread some illogical Number and fear . I repeat we just started a strong , disciplined and constructive Bull Run and this will remain not less than 10yrs from now . I could have written more with many complex data which only will create confusion and does not add real value . Lets all other do that and we continue to keep faith on US and remain invested .

Wish you all a Happy and prosperous New year and I Thank all of you for keeping faith on us and for supporting . Wish and Request to continue as it is. We are small and new but always kept trying to add values . We innovated many new things and will keep doing these to make your investment simple and fruitful .

All the Best!!